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Extra resources for Climate Models
TRMM (courtesy of NASA’s Goddard Earth Sciences [GES] Data and Information Services Center). Regional Climate Model Applications for West Africa and the Tropical Eastern Atlantic 51 increased continental sensible heating which, in turn, initiates a surge in moisture convergence over the Sahel. The ability of RCMs to reproduce the northward migration of the rain belt and its subsequent retreat is fundamentally important to both their usefulness in forecasting and climate sensitivity studies. Skillful simulation of the northward jump is especially desirable since it represents the onset of monsoon rains over the semi-arid Sahel region.
10. Significant signal variance and thus the SN ratio are observed over the entire Tropics and PNA region during DJF and MAM but over the Tropical Indian Ocean and Atlantic Ocean and some parts of Asia during JJA and SON. Note that the current estimation of the external variance and SN ratio is larger than that from Kumar et al. (2007)’s estimation both using AMIP simulation and DEMETER coupled hindcast indicating that the current coupled models have less systematic biases than AMIP models and DEMETER coupled models.
Navarra, A. Arribas, M. Déqué, P. Rogel, and A. Weisheimer, 2011: Evaluation of probabilistic quality and value of the ENSEMBLES multi-model seasonal forecasts: comparison with DEMETER. Mon. Wea. 1. Barnston, A. and R. E. Livezey, 1987: Classification, seasonality and persistence of lowfrequency atmospheric circulation patterns. Mon. Wea. , 82, 1083-1126. Barnston, AG, Mason SJ, Goddard L, Dewitt DG, Zebiak SE, 2003: Multimodel ensembling in seasonal climate forecasting at IRI. Bull Am Meteor Soc 84:1783-1796 Charney, J.